In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities
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Joel Anderson
11 min read
Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn't implausible for plenty of Americans living in some areas, that's rapidly changing in many places.
GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow's September 2022-23 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median of $325,677, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed "not affordable."
Granted, this approach comes with some caveats. Projecting into the future based on a single year's growth rate could ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow's estimated home values don't necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.
Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.
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Roseburg, Oregon
January 2022 home value: $321,807
One-year projected growth rate: 20.4%
Roseburg is in the Hundred Valleys of the Umpqua in southwestern Oregon, known for having seasonal, but pleasant, temperatures - never too hot or too cold. It sits 123 miles north of the California border.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2023
Projected home value: $387,456
U.S. median projected home value: $382,019
Difference in value: $5,437
*Oakland, Oregon pictured.
Steven Liveoak / Shutterstock.com
Auburn, Alabama
January 2022 home value: $321,643
One-year projected growth rate: 19.4%
Auburn, in the eastern part of central Alabama, is just 35 miles west of Columbus, Georgia, and a 3 ½-hour drive from vacation spots along the Gulf of Mexico. Auburn University is the city's largest employer, with about 7,100 people working there
disorderly / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2023
Projected home value: $384,042
U.S. median projected home value: $382,019
Difference in value: $2,023
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Fayetteville, Arkansas
January 2022 home value: $307,909
One-year projected growth rate: 23.1%
Another college town, Fayetteville is home to the University of Arkansas. Bill and Hillary Clinton called Fayetteville home before he was elected the state's governor, and then president of the United States, and the home they lived in is now a museum preserving memories of their time in the city.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $466,593
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $18,485
SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com
Knoxville, Tennessee
January 2022 home value: $299,342
One-year projected growth rate: 23.1%
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $453,611
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $5,503
Patricia Elaine Thomas / Shutterstock.com
Dallas
January 2022 home value: $308,661
One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%
Dallas, with 1.3 million residents, is the third-largest city in Texas but also the ninth-largest in the United States. It boasts many firsts. The nation's first planned shopping center (Highland Park Village Shopping Center) and convenience store (7-Eleven) opened in Dallas, and the frozen margarita and precursor to the microchip were invented there.
Trong Nguyen / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $462,429
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $14,321
Chris Rubino / Shutterstock.com
Tucson, Arizona
January 2022 home value: $307,232
One-year projected growth rate: 21.5%
Tucson is an hour north of the border with Mexico, and it lays claim to some of the best Mexican food in the U.S. Start on 12th Avenue in the city to begin your tour of what is called The Best 23 Miles of Mexican food.
Tim Roberts Photography / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $453,544
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $5,436
chapin31 / iStock.com
Pueblo, Colorado
January 2022 home value: $291,995
One-year projected growth rate: 22.6%
A city of about 112,000 people, Pueblo is located along the Arkansas River in Colorado, which once was the boundary between the U.S. and Mexico. The Colorado State Fair has been held in Pueblo since 1872.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $538,080
U.S. median projected home value: $525,631
Difference in value: $12,449
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Fort Worth, Texas
January 2022 home value: $292,963
One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%
A city of about 920,000, Fort Worth grew by more than 175,000 people between the censuses of 2010 and 2020. Fun fact: 60 percent of America's paper money is printed at the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing Western Currency Facility in Fort Worth.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $537,226
U.S. median projected home value: $525,631
Difference in value: $11,595
Susilyn / Shutterstock.com
Lakeland, Florida
January 2022 home value: $263,818
One-year projected growth rate: 25.6%
Lakeland is located along Interstate 4 between Tampa and Florida. It's name is appropriate. Lakeland has 38 named lakes within its 74.4 square miles.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $656,543
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $39,978
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Daytona Beach, Florida
January 2022 home value: $258,118
One-year projected growth rate: 25.5%
Daytona Beach is known as the home of the Daytona International Speedway and the Daytona 500, but even amateur drivers have a spot in the city. Visitors are allowed to drive - slowly - along designated areas of the 23-mile-long white-sand beaches.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $640,314
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $23,749
Arizona: 3.00% APY
Yuma, Arizona
January 2022 home value: $266,546
One-year projected growth rate: 24.1%
Yuma has about 95,000 residents, and there's a good many of them help to put some of the food on your table. According to the city's tourism website, Yuma is the "winter vegetable capital of the world" and produces 91% of the leafy greens served in North America each winter. Instead of watching the ball drop on New Year's Eve, you can watch the Iceberg Lettuce Drop.
Ken Lund / Flickr.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $632,207
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $15,642
Brian Stansberry / Wikimedia Commons
Crossville, Tennessee
January 2022 home value: $262,886
One-year projected growth rate: 24.1%
In 12,000-resident Crossville, residents can test their physical and mental skills. Known as the Golf Capital of Tennessee, it has nine courses. And, Crossville is the headquarters of the United States Chess Federation, too.
Swarmcatcher / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $623,526
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $6,961
Residential subdivision in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
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Pocatello, Idaho
January 2022 home value: $289,072
One-year projected growth rate: 21.6%
Pocatello is in the southeastern portion of Idaho at an altitude of 4,448 feet. Home of Idaho State University, the city is along the Oregon Trail, in the western foothills of the Rocky Mountains.
Ric Schafer / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $632,034
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $15,469
Idaho Falls, Idaho pictured.
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Jacksonville, Florida
January 2022 home value: $281,915
One-year projected growth rate: 21.8%
At 840 square miles, Jacksonville is the largest city in the continental United States in terms of land mass. About 950,000 people live in the city - almost twice the amount of residents of Florida's second-largest city in terms of population, Miami.
Ron_Thomas / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $620,451
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $3,886
Ocala, Fla
Ocala, Florida
January 2022 home value: $230,684
One-year projected growth rate: 25.6%
Ocala, the first town in Marion County in the early 1840s, has preserved much of its past in the Ocala Historic Downtown Square. Boutiques, restaurants, galleries and more fill the spaces. About 64,000 people live in Ocala
Michael Warren / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2028
Projected home value: $905,639
U.S. median projected home value: $848,350
Difference in value: $57,289
Lorraine Boogich / Getty Images
Cookeville, Tennessee
January 2022 home value: $262,204
One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%
Incorporated in 1903, Cookeville sits almost midway between two of Tennessee's biggest cities - 101 miles west of Knoxville and 79 miles east of Nashville. Fun fact: According to the local visitors bureau, Cookeville is within a day's drive of 75% of the nation's population.
Nashville, Tennessee neighborhood pictured.
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When it Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2028
Projected home value: $881,714
U.S. median projected home value: $848,350
Difference in value: $33,364
Nashville, Tennessee pictured.
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Athens, Georgia
January 2022 home value: $279,410
One-year projected growth rate: 20.3%
Athens, with a population of 127,300, is 60 miles northeast of Atlanta. The home of the University of Georgia, the city is beaming with pride. Their beloved Bulldogs won the College Football Playoff national championship following the 2021 season - their first since 1980.
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2029
Projected home value: $1,018,829
U.S. median projected home value: $995,115
Difference in value: $23,714
Manuela Durson / Shutterstock.com
Klamath Falls, Oregon
January 2022 home value: $280,201
One-year projected growth rate: 19.9%
Klamath Falls is in the south-central part of Oregon, just north of the California border. The city has a population of nearly 22,000, according to the 2020 U.S. Census. The Klamath Falls website reports the city has the highest concentration of bald eagles in the Pacific Northwest.
Grants Pass, Oregon pictured.
Oregon: 66.67 Hours a Month to Afford
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2029
Projected home value: $998,169
U.S. median projected home value: $995,115
Difference in value: $3,054
Sean Pavone/iStockPhoto
Savannah, Georgia
January 2022 home value: $246,657
One-year projected growth rate: 22%
Savannah's history dates to 1733, and it became the first city in the 13th colony - Georgia - which was named for King George II of England. Today, visitors are drawn by its period architecture, art and boutiques
SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $1,210,520
U.S. median projected home value: $1,167,270
Difference in value: $43,250
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Huntsville, Alabama
January 2022 home value: $266,033
One-year projected growth rate: 20.6%
The city is named after John Hunt, who settled there in 1805. It grew rapidly from 2010 to 2020 - from 180,000 to 215,000 people - and is a bustling area for the technology, space and defense industries. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command are located in Huntsville.
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $1,190,458
U.S. median projected home value: $1,167,270
Difference in value: $23,188
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Clarksville, Tennessee
January 2022 home value: $270,758
One-year projected growth rate: 20%
Clarksville is about an hour's drive north of Nashville and is located just south of the Kentucky border. About 167,000 people live there, and the average age of residents is 29, the city reports.
Google Maps
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2031
Projected home value: $1,397,052
U.S. median projected home value: $1,369,207
Difference in value: $27,845
ivanastar / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Albuquerque, New Mexico
January 2022 home value: $289,262
One-year projected growth rate: 19%
About 565,000 people live in Albuquerque, and what does it mean if one of them asks you "red or green"? You're being asked whether you want red or green chiles in your New Mexican fare. Reply "Christmas" if you want both.
Joel Anderson contributed to the reporting for this article.
Methodology: GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow's September 2022-23 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed "not affordable." For each "not affordable" city over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the city will become "not affordable"; (2) projected home value for that year; (3) U.S. average projected home value for that year; and (4) the difference in value between factors (2) and (3). NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on Feb. 23, 2022.
