Polymarket bettors have put a bearish bet on Bitcoin in 2025.
According to polls, more than 76% expect the price of Bitcoin to fall to $70,000, intensifying fear in the crypto space.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,450.29 and the total crypto market cap down 5.97% in 24 hours to $2.47 trillion.
The new round of uncertainty comes in the wake of President Donald Trump’s threat to slap a 50% punitive tariff on China, broadening a longstanding trade fight between the two countries. The White House has warned that negotiations could break unless Beijing rescinds its retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods.
Now, Wall Street is reacting to the trade war, and analysts are taking different approaches.
Larry Fink, the chief executive at BlackRock, warned investors in a media appearance today that he “wouldn’t be surprised” by another 20% drop in equity markets if the United States-China tariff war intensified. He added that while this is a good buying opportunity, “that doesn’t mean we can’t fall another 20% from here”.
Economist Peter Schiff argued that markets were still vastly underpricing the risk of recession. “The stock market hasn’t come close to pricing in the recession that awaits if tariffs stay in place. Even with the drop, assuming recession is avoided, the market is still expensive. Since this would be the worst recession since the Great Depression, even a 50% drop isn’t enough.” he wrote on X. However, he thinks Bitcoin is “unlikely” to solve this market crisis.
Among crypto circles, long-time chart analyst and legendary trader Peter Brandt confirmed that Bitcoin’s technicals of $54,000 are a crucial retracement level, a 50% pullback from prior highs. Meanwhile, his chart indicates that Bitcoin could continue to fall further, particularly if broader economic pressures remain or levered speculators continue to unwind.
"When I started trading we created our own charts from graph paper? And you wonder why my generation still uses white backgrounds? If the young guns of today had started then, would they have used black paper with white, green and red ink pens? BTW, $54k is a 50% retrace in BTC," Brandt posted.
The two impactful words from Peter Brandt’s post that stand out are:
"Fifty percent." These words refer to the 50% retracement level at $54,000 for Bitcoin — a key technical signal he's highlighting as BTC dips, suggesting deeper downside could follow.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley agreed that “It’s no coincidence that Bitcoin originated during a financial crisis,” arguably suggesting that Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against crisis may soon be tested again.