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Some Lazard, Inc. (NYSE:LAZ) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 36% over the last three months. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 39%, less than the market return of 91%.
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last half decade, Lazard became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Lazard has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Lazard will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Lazard's TSR for the last 5 years was 80%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 4.0% in the last year, Lazard shareholders lost 6.8% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 13%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Lazard better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Lazard you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.