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Koninklijke Vopak N.V. (AMS:VPK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to €41.98 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €325m and statutory earnings per share of €3.63. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Koninklijke Vopak
Following last week's earnings report, Koninklijke Vopak's twin analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €1.35b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.7% to €3.62. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.35b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.70 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €48.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Koninklijke Vopak's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.6% over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 1.1% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, Koninklijke Vopak is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Koninklijke Vopak's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €48.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.