Knorr-Bremse AG's (ETR:KBX) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Fri, Mar 14, 2025, 2:09 AM 4 min read

Most readers would already be aware that Knorr-Bremse's (ETR:KBX) stock increased significantly by 27% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Knorr-Bremse's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Knorr-Bremse is:

15% = €477m ÷ €3.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each €1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made €0.15 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Knorr-Bremse's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

To begin with, Knorr-Bremse seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 10%. However, we are curious as to how the high returns still resulted in flat growth for Knorr-Bremse in the past five years. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that's limiting the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

As a next step, we compared Knorr-Bremse's net income growth with the industry and discovered that the industry saw an average growth of 17% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth — XTRA:KBX Past Earnings Growth March 14th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for KBX? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Knorr-Bremse Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 48% (implying that the company keeps 52% of its income) over the last three years, Knorr-Bremse has seen a negligible amount of growth in earnings as we saw above. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

In addition, Knorr-Bremse has been paying dividends over a period of six years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 48%. Still, forecasts suggest that Knorr-Bremse's future ROE will rise to 20% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Knorr-Bremse has some positive attributes. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.