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Keyera Corp. (TSE:KEY) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CA$1.8b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Keyera surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CA$0.57 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Keyera is for revenues of CA$6.12b in 2025. This implies a considerable 17% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 8.5% to CA$2.18 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$6.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.10 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
Check out our latest analysis for Keyera
There's been no real change to the average price target of CA$46.23, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Keyera, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$51.00 and the most bearish at CA$41.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Keyera is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 22% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Keyera is expected to lag the wider industry.