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Reaffirming 2024 Guidance

• Marketing segment realized margin¹ for 2024 is expected to remain between $450 million and $480 million.

• Growth capital expenditures are expected to reach the upper end of the previously guided range of $80 million to $100 million. This includes capital for advancing the KFS Frac II debottleneck project and optimization work at the Brazeau River gas plant. It also includes accelerated investments in new tie-in points at Wapiti to support new customer volumes which will also flow onto KAPS and the rest of Keyera's integrated system.

• Maintenance capital expenditures are expected to remain within the range of $120 million and $140 million.

• Cash tax expense is expected to remain in the range of $90 million to $100 million.

Upcoming 2025 Guidance Disclosures

• Keyera will be providing 2025 guidance on December 10, 2024.

Maintenance Schedule

 

CEO's Message to Shareholders 

Strategically positioned to benefit from basin growth. Over the past several years, we have invested significantly to build a fully integrated natural gas liquids value chain from the Montney and Duvernay to our core liquids infrastructure assets in Edmonton and Fort Saskatchewan. This has enhanced the service offerings and value we can bring to our customers while making Keyera more competitive. Within our G&P segment, we continue to reach new throughput records at our North region gas plants which serve the prolific Montney and Duvernay fairways. Our Liquids Infrastructure segment continues to grow steadily with the ramp up of KAPS and rising demand for fractionation, condensate handling and other ancillary services. With the basin poised to grow, Keyera remains well positioned to keep adding value for customers while increasing its high quality, fee-for-service cash flow.

Financial strength and flexibility. Keyera is in the enviable position of having the strongest balance sheet amongst our peers. This gives us tremendous flexibility to deploy capital in a manner that is the most value accretive for shareholders. We recently raised the dividend, and today, announced that we plan to file a notice of intention to make a normal course issuer bid. We will continue to balance additional cash returns to shareholders with capital efficient growth investments to further strengthen our value chain.

Capital-efficient margin growth. Given the projected volume growth in the basin, we expect to continue to fill available capacity across our integrated system including at our gas plants, KAPS, and our industry leading Fort Saskatchewan Condensate System. This will allow us to continue to grow margins with modest incremental capital. In addition, we continue to advance several capital efficient growth projects including KAPS Zone 4, KFS Frac II debottleneck, and KFS Frac III to name a few. These projects can all be equity self-funded.

Marketing segment is a unique competitive advantage. Our Marketing business enables us to efficiently connect our customers to the highest-value markets, thereby enhancing their netbacks. This segment is a natural extension of our integrated platform, providing us the opportunity to consistently produce higher than average corporate returns on invested capital relative to our peers. The cash flow generated from this segment is reinvested in our fee-for-service business, accelerating growth in high-quality, long-term contracted cash flows.

Basin growth fundamentals remain strong. Western Canada production continues to grow. This trend is supported by the continued filling of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, the start-up of LNG Canada, a growing Petrochemical industry, and increasing LPG exports off the West Coast of Canada. As an essential infrastructure service provider, Keyera will continue to play an integral role in enabling basin volume growth by leveraging our integrated platform.

On behalf of Keyera, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, Indigenous rights holders, and other stakeholders for their continued support.

Dean Setoguchi
President and CEO
Keyera Corp.

Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call and Webcast

Keyera will be conducting a conference call and webcast for investors, analysts, brokers and media representatives to discuss the financial results for the third quarter of 2024 at 8:00 a.m. Mountain Time (10:00 a.m. Eastern Time) on Thursday, November 14, 2024. Callers may participate by dialing 1-888-510-2154 or 1-437-900-0527. A recording of the conference call will be available for replay until 10:00 PM Mountain Time on November 27, 2024 (12:00 AM Eastern Time on November 28, 2024), by dialing 1-888-660-6345 or 1-289-819-1450 and entering passcode 98075.

To join the conference call without operator assistance, you may register and enter your phone number here to receive an instant automated call back. This link will be active on Thursday, November 14, 2024, at 7:00 AM Mountain Time (9:00 AM Eastern Time).

A live webcast of the conference call can be accessed here or through Keyera's website at http://www.keyera.com/news/events. Shortly after the call, an audio archive will be posted on the website for 90 days.

Additional Information

For more information about Keyera Corp., please visit our website at www.keyera.com or contact:

Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations
Rahul Pandey, Senior Advisor, Investor Relations
Email: ir@keyera.com
Telephone: 403.205.7670 
Toll free: 1.888.699.4853

For media inquiries, please contact:

Amanda Condie, Manager, Corporate Communications
Email: media@keyera.com
Telephone: 1.855.797.0036

About Keyera Corp.

Keyera Corp. (TSX: KEY) operates an integrated Canadian-based energy infrastructure business with extensive interconnected assets and depth of expertise in delivering energy solutions. Its predominantly fee-for-service based business consists of natural gas gathering and processing; natural gas liquids processing, transportation, storage, and marketing; iso-octane production and sales; and an industry-leading condensate system in the Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan area of Alberta. Keyera strives to provide high quality, value-added services to its customers across North America and is committed to conducting its business ethically, safely and in an environmentally and financially responsible manner.

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

This news release refers to certain financial and other measures that are not determined in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP"). Measures such as funds from operations, distributable cash flow, distributable cash flow per share, payout ratio, realized margin, EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are not standard measures under GAAP or are supplementary financial measures, and as a result, may not be comparable to similar measures reported by other entities. Management believes that these non-GAAP and other financial measures facilitate the understanding of Keyera's results of operations, leverage, liquidity and financial position. These measures do not have any standardized meaning under GAAP and therefore, should not be considered in isolation, or used in substitution for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. For additional information on these non-GAAP and other financial measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures for Keyera's historical non-GAAP financial measures, refer below and to Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") for the period ended September 30, 2024, which is available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and Keyera's website at www.keyera.com. Specifically, refer to the sections of the MD&A titled, "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures", "Forward-Looking Statements", "Segmented Results of Operations", "Dividends: Funds from Operations, Distributable Cash Flow and Payout Ratio" and "EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA".

Funds from Operations and Distributable Cash Flow ("DCF")

Funds from operations is defined as cash flow from operating activities adjusted for changes in non-cash working capital. This measure is used to assess the level of cash flow generated from operating activities excluding the effect of changes in non-cash working capital, as they are primarily the result of seasonal fluctuations in product inventories or other temporary changes. Funds from operations is also a valuable measure that allows investors to compare Keyera with other infrastructure companies within the oil and gas industry.

Distributable cash flow is defined as cash flow from operating activities adjusted for changes in non-cash working capital, inventory write-downs, maintenance capital expenditures and lease payments, including the periodic costs related to prepaid leases. Distributable cash flow per share is defined as distributable cash flow divided by weighted average number of shares outstanding – basic. Distributable cash flow is used to assess the level of cash flow generated from ongoing operations and to evaluate the adequacy of internally generated cash flow to fund dividends.

The following is a reconciliation of funds from operations and distributable cash flow to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, cash flow from operating activities:

Payout Ratio

Payout ratio is calculated as dividends declared to shareholders divided by distributable cash flow. This ratio is used to assess the sustainability of the company's dividend payment program.

EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA

EBITDA is a measure showing earnings before finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as EBITDA before costs associated with non-cash items, including unrealized gains and losses on commodity-related contracts, net foreign currency gains and losses on U.S. debt and other, impairment expenses and any other non-cash items such as gains and losses on the disposal of property, plant and equipment. Management believes that these supplemental measures facilitate the understanding of Keyera's results from operations. In particular these measures are used as an indication of earnings generated from operations after consideration of administrative and overhead costs.

The following is a reconciliation of EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, net earnings:

Realized Margin

Realized margin is defined as operating margin excluding unrealized gains and losses on commodity-related risk management contracts. Management believes that this supplemental measure facilitates the understanding of the financial results for the operating segments in the period without the effect of mark-to-market changes from risk management contracts related to future periods.

The following is a reconciliation of realized margin to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, operating margin:

 

 

 

Compound Annual Growth Rate ("CAGR") for Adjusted EBITDA holding Marketing constant
(previously CAGR for Adjusted EBITDA from the Fee-for-Service Business)

CAGR is calculated as follows:

CAGR for adjusted EBITDA holding Marketing constant is intended to provide information on a forward-looking basis. This calculation utilizes beginning and end of period adjusted EBITDA, which includes the following components and assumptions: i) forecasted realized margin for the Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments, ii) realized margin for the Marketing segment, which is held at a value within the expected annual base realized margin (between $310 million and $350 million), and iii) adjustments for total forecasted general and administrative, and long-term incentive plan expenses.

Forward-Looking Statements

In order to provide readers with information regarding Keyera, including its assessment of future plans and operations, its financial outlook and future prospects overall, this news release contains certain statements that constitute "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation (collectively, "forward-looking information"). Forward-looking information is typically identified by words such as "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "can", "project", "should", "would", "plan", "intend", "believe", "plan", "target", "outlook:, "scheduled", "positioned", and similar words or expressions, including the negatives or variations thereof. All statements other than statements of historical fact contained in this document are forward-looking information, including, without limitation, statements regarding:

• industry, market and economic conditions and any anticipated effects on Keyera;

• Keyera's future financial position and operational performance and future financial contributions and margins from its business segments including, but not limited to, Keyera's expectation around meeting the upper end of our compound annual growth rate target, and Keyera's expectation that its Marketing business will contribute realized margin between $450 million and $480 million in 2024 and an annual base realized margin of between $310 million and $350 after 2024;

• estimates for 2024 regarding Keyera's growth capital expenditures, maintenance capital expenditures and cash tax expense;

• the expectation that demand for Keyera's liquid infrastructure service offerings, including fractionation capacity and storage capacity, will remain strong;

• projected volume growth in the basin and expectations around filling available capacity across Keyera's integrated system;

• plans around the expansion of Keyera's fractionation capacity, including the debottleneck project and third fractionation unit at the KFS complex;

• Keyera's plans around the proposed NCIB, including the timing thereof and approval of the NCIB by the TSX;

• Timing of 2025 guidance disclosure;

• plans around future dividends and capital efficient growth investments;

• business strategy, anticipated growth and plans of management;

• budgets, including future growth capital, operating and other expenditures and projected costs;

• anticipated timing for future revenue streams and optimization plans; and

• expectations regarding Keyera's ability to maintain its competitive position, raise capital and add to its assets through acquisitions or internal growth opportunities, and the ability to equity self-fund future growth opportunities when ready for sanction.

All forward-looking information reflects Keyera's beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the applicable forward-looking information is made and in light of Keyera's current expectations with respect to such things as the outlook for general economic trends, industry trends, commodity prices, oil and gas industry exploration and development activity levels and the geographic region of such activity, Keyera's access to the capital markets and the cost of raising capital, the integrity and reliability of Keyera's assets, the governmental, regulatory and legal environment, general compliance with Keyera's plans, strategies, programs, and goals across its reporting and monitoring systems among employees, stakeholders and service providers. Keyera's expectation as to the "base realized margin" to be contributed by its Marketing segment assumes: i) a crude oil price of between US$65 and US$75 per barrel; ii) butane feedstock costs comparable to the 10-year average; and iii) AEF utilization at nameplate capacity. Keyera's expectation as to "realized margin" to be contributed by its Marketing segment in 2024 assumes: i) the AEF facility operates at capacity for the remainder of the year, ii) there are no significant logistics or transportation curtailments, and iii) current forward commodity pricing for unhedged volumes for the remainder of the year. In some instances, this press release may also contain forward-looking information attributed to third parties. Forward-looking information does not guarantee future performance. Management believes that its assumptions and expectations reflected in the forward-looking information contained herein are reasonable based on the information available on the date such information is provided and the process used to prepare the information. However, it cannot assure readers that these expectations will prove to be correct.

All forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, events, levels of activity and achievements to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking information. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation, the following:

• Keyera's ability to implement its strategic priorities and business plan and achieve the expected benefits;

• general industry, market and economic conditions;

• activities of customers, producers and other facility owners;

• operational hazards and performance;

• the effectiveness of Keyera's risk management programs;

• competition;

• changes in commodity composition and prices, inventory levels, supply/demand trends and other market conditions and factors;

• disruptions to global supply chains and labour shortages;

• processing and marketing margins;

• climate change risks, including the effects of unusual weather and natural catastrophes;

• climate change effects and regulatory and market compliance and other costs associated with climate change;

• variables associated with capital projects, including the potential for increased costs, including inflationary pressures, timing, delays, cooperation of partners, and access to capital on favourable terms;

• fluctuations in interest, tax and foreign currency exchange rates;

• hedging strategy risks;

• counterparty performance and credit risk;

• changes in operating and capital costs;

• cost and availability of financing;

• ability to expand, update and adapt infrastructure on a timely and effective basis;

• decommissioning, abandonment and reclamation costs;

• reliance on key personnel and third parties;

• actions by joint venture partners or other partners which hold interests in certain of Keyera's assets;

• relationships with external stakeholders, including Indigenous stakeholders;

• technology, security and cybersecurity risks;

• potential litigation and disputes;

• uninsured and underinsured losses;

• ability to service debt and pay dividends;

• changes in credit ratings;

• reputational risks;

• risks related to a breach of confidentiality;

• changes in environmental and other laws and regulations;

• the ability to obtain regulatory, stakeholder and third-party approvals;

• actions by governmental authorities;

• global health crisis, such as pandemics and epidemics and the unexpected impacts related thereto;

• the effectiveness of Keyera's existing and planned ESG and risk management programs; and

• the ability of Keyera to achieve specific targets that are part of its ESG initiatives, including those relating to emissions intensity reduction targets, as well as other climate-change related initiatives;

and other risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Keyera, and some of which are discussed under "Risk Factors" herein and in Keyera's Annual Information Form.

Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive and they should not unduly rely on the forward-looking information included in this press release. Further, readers are cautioned that the forward-looking information contained herein is made as of the date of this press release. Unless required by law, Keyera does not intend and does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking information. All forward-looking information contained in this press release is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Further information about the factors affecting forward-looking information and management's assumptions and analysis thereof, is available in filings made by Keyera with Canadian provincial securities commissions available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

SOURCE Keyera Corp.

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