Is Key Petroleum Limited's (ASX:KEY) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

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Simply Wall St

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 6:50 PM 3 min read

Key Petroleum's (ASX:KEY) stock is up by a considerable 100% over the past month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Specifically, we decided to study Key Petroleum's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Key Petroleum

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Key Petroleum is:

19% = AU$350k ÷ AU$1.9m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.19 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Key Petroleum's Earnings Growth And 19% ROE

To start with, Key Petroleum's ROE looks acceptable. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 24%. Although, we can see that Key Petroleum saw a modest net income growth of 16% over the past five years. Therefore, the growth in earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place. Bear in mind, the company does have a respectable level of ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. So this also does lend some color to the fairly high earnings growth seen by the company.

We then compared Key Petroleum's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 38% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:KEY Past Earnings Growth September 24th 2023

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Key Petroleum fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Key Petroleum Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Given that Key Petroleum doesn't pay any dividend to its shareholders, we infer that the company has been reinvesting all of its profits to grow its business.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Key Petroleum certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Particularly, its earnings have grown respectably as we saw earlier, which was likely achieved due to the company reinvesting most of its earnings at a decent rate of return, to grow its business. While we won't completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. You can see the 4 risks we have identified for Key Petroleum by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.