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By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Kathmandu Holdings Limited (NZSE:KMD) share price is up 71% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 42% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 35% in the last year , including dividends .
View our latest analysis for Kathmandu Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Kathmandu Holdings was able to grow its EPS at 15% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 20% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Kathmandu Holdings's TSR for the last 3 years was 117%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Kathmandu Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 18% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Kathmandu Holdings's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.