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Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenues beat expectations coming in atUS$39m, ahead of estimates by 2.3%. Statutory losses were somewhat smaller thanthe analysts expected, coming in at US$0.26 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Karyopharm Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Karyopharm Therapeutics' six analysts is for revenues of US$166.1m in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$0.73. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$171.6m and losses of US$0.71 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Karyopharm Therapeutics after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.
The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$4.50, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Karyopharm Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Karyopharm Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Karyopharm Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.