(Reuters) - JP Morgan (JPM) expects the global deficit in refined copper (HG=F) to grow to 160,000 metric tons in 2026 and continues to forecast copper prices averaging around $11,000 per metric ton next year, the bank said in a note dated Friday.
Following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to order a national security probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports, the bank said it expects a tariff rate of at least 10% on refined copper and copper product imports to be enacted by late in the third quarter, with a significant risk of a higher tariff rate of 25%.
"Likely excess inventory builds in the U.S. in the coming months ahead of a tariff on copper sets up the potential to leave the rest of the world shorter of copper ... setting the stage for our forecast bullish push higher over 2H25 towards $10,400/mt," JP Morgan noted.
The bank also forecast China's demand growth would slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, and added "this remains the greatest downside risk to our forecasted tightening in copper markets".
However, the bank predicted only a modest deceleration in global copper demand growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025.
The global refined copper market showed a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, compared with a 124,000 metric ton deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) report showed.
Meanwhile, Citi last week said in a note it anticipated the eventual implementation of a 25% copper-specific tariff by the fourth quarter of 2025 following Trump's executive order.
London copper rose on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and improving manufacturing activity in top metals consumer China. [MET/L]
(Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey)