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It's been a sad week for John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (NYSE:WLY), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$45.70 in the week since the company reported its second-quarter result. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for John Wiley & Sons
After the latest results, the consensus from John Wiley & Sons' one analyst is for revenues of US$1.67b in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 5.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with John Wiley & Sons forecast to report a statutory profit of US$2.27 per share. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$1.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.33 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analyst did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Althoughthe analyst has revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 9.4% to US$58.00, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 10% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that John Wiley & Sons' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for John Wiley & Sons. Fortunately, the analyst also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that John Wiley & Sons' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.