JOBY Stock Alert: My Joby Aviation Outlook for 2024

Chris MacDonald

Wed, Jan 10, 2024, 2:12 AM 4 min read

In 2023, Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) emerged as a prominent flying car stock to watch, making a number of key advancements. Collaborating with NASA, JOBY stock demonstrated its vehicles’ ability to conduct 120 flights per hour in busy airport environments. The Air Taxi sector, including companies like Joby, displays promising potential with strategic partnerships and route development between major airport hubs.

That said, JOBY has a lot of potential upside this 2024. However, it’s also important to look at the risks. Here is an outlook for Joby this 2024 that investors should take the time to consider.

Latest Good News

Working towards a targeted commercial launch in 2025, Joby Aviation recently forged a partnership with Japan for infrastructure development. The company demonstrated to NASA how air taxi operations seamlessly integrate into current airspace, even at bustling airports, using existing tools and procedures.

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Impressively, Joby delivered the first electric air taxi to the U.S. Air Force ahead of schedule, part of a $131 million contract with the Department of Defense. Despite reporting no earnings in the latest quarter, Joby beat expectations by 18 cents and ended the year with $1.1 billion in cash.

The company’s ultimate objective is to revolutionize commutes between homes and airports. JOBY stock aims to reduce travel time between John F. Kennedy Airport and its vicinity from 1 hour to 7 minutes. Securing a $9.8 million grant last month, the company is set to expand its production facilities in Marina, California, generating 690 new jobs.

Joby is Making Rapid Progress

Joby Aviation successfully conducted air traffic simulations with NASA’s Ames Research Center to assess the integration of air taxi operations into existing airspace, including busy airports, utilizing current air traffic control tools and procedures.

Developed in collaboration with NASA, Joby Aviation conducted air traffic simulations at NASA’s Future Flight Central, simulating dozens of eVTOL aircraft scenarios in the Dallas-Fort Worth airspace, demonstrating integration with existing air traffic control systems and procedures.

Employing established routes and procedures, controllers in the simulation utilized structured methods from busy low-altitude airspace, ensuring seamless integration of air taxi operations. Representatives from the FAA and NATCA observed the simulation, and NASA plans to release a comprehensive analysis next year, sharing insights with the industry and regulatory bodies.

The Potential Bear Case

In the past year, significant insider selling at Joby Aviation, Inc. has caught shareholders’ attention. While insider buying is typically more noteworthy, consistent selling by multiple insiders within a specific timeframe raises potential concerns for shareholders. While blindly following insider transactions isn’t advised, prudent attention to the trend of insider buying or selling is recommended.

Joby Aviation’s Founder, JoeBen Bevirt, conducted the largest insider sale in the past 12 months, selling shares at a price below the current market value. This move suggests a cashing out decision, raising questions about the insider’s perspective on the recent higher valuation. While insider selling is a concern, the magnitude of the largest sale only represented 0.1% of JoeBen Bevirt’s holdings.

Notably, there were no insider purchases during the last year, and significant insider selling, totaling $165k in the past three months, further indicates caution regarding the stock’s value.

Bottom line

Joby, once overly hyped, now trades at a 60% discount from early 2021 levels, aligning its vision with reality. Partnering with airlines and gaining global government attention, the company faces potential hurdles like regulatory delays and fierce competition among the half-dozen players in the emerging eVOTL market.

Valued at over $4 billion with limited current revenue, the company’s future prospects seemingly factored into its market value. Those embracing risk and the transformative potential of eVOTLs might find Joby a compelling addition to a diversified portfolio.

On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Chris MacDonald’s love for investing led him to pursue an MBA in Finance and take on a number of management roles in corporate finance and venture capital over the past 15 years. His experience as a financial analyst in the past, coupled with his fervor for finding undervalued growth opportunities, contribute to his conservative, long-term investing perspective.