Economic data this week will play a crucial role in determining the Fed’s next move on December 11. Two big economic reports will be on investor’s radars this week — the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey and the November employment report.

November’s ISM manufacturing report is scheduled to be released shortly after the market open Monday. After a few months of being in contractionary territory, most economists do not expect the ISM manufacturing index to deteriorate further so long as the trade war does escalate further.

“Regional surveys have broadly improved, and we expect headline ISM to recover above 50 in the next few months. Despite some recovery, we do not expect manufacturing surveys to pick up robustly,” Credit Suisse wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “Profits growth has slowed, global growth has been sluggish, and trade uncertainty is likely to linger even if US-China negotiations yield a tentative deal.”

Capital Economics echoed Credit Suisse’s sentiment. “Helped by the pause in trade tensions, global conditions appear to be stabilizing, the dollar has been broadly stable in trade-weighted terms, and the drop in interest rates is starting to feed through. Putting that all together, we expect the ISM manufacturing index to rebound to 50.0 in November, from 48.3. That would be a sign that manufacturing output is not falling off a cliff. But we don’t expect it to mark the beginning of a game-changing recovery, either, with manufacturing conditions likely to remain subdued in 2020.”

Economists at Wells Fargo explained the importance of the ongoing trade war, and how if there is no significant escalation into next year, manufacturing could start to improve modestly. However, the firm noted that a return to pre-trade war highs in the index would be unlikely.

Friday, investors will get another read on the health of the U.S. labor market when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the November employment report. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the economy to have added 190,000 jobs during the month, up from the 128,000 payrolls added in October. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6% and near five-decade lows.

Even as the General Motors (GM) strike resulted in a 45,000 decrease in auto jobs, October’s reading surprised to the upside. The labor market is expected to have remained solid during November.

“The job market in the United States remains quite strong, though more than 10 years into this expansion, it is starting to show its age. The U.S. added over 200K jobs each month in 2017 and 2018, on average. In 2019, that average monthly growth rate slowed to 167K,” Wells Fargo said in a note Wednesday. “After adding just 128K jobs in October, some improvement is expected in November. A faster pace of job growth would offer some assurance to the Fed and the markets that the economy really is in ‘a good place’ after all.”