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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) share price is 81% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 22% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 48% in the last three years.
In light of the stock dropping 5.4% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
See our latest analysis for JD.com
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last year JD.com grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 51%. The share price gain of 81% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that JD.com has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of JD.com, it has a TSR of 87% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that JD.com has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 87% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 0.4% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Before forming an opinion on JD.com you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.