Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)
CN¥26.8b
CN¥38.1b
CN¥48.6b
CN¥48.1b
CN¥53.6b
CN¥57.6b
CN¥61.0b
CN¥63.9b
CN¥66.4b
CN¥68.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x13
Analyst x11
Analyst x12
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 7.46%
Est @ 5.86%
Est @ 4.73%
Est @ 3.95%
Est @ 3.39%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10%
CN¥24.3k
CN¥31.5k
CN¥36.5k
CN¥32.8k
CN¥33.2k
CN¥32.5k
CN¥31.2k
CN¥29.7k
CN¥28.1k
CN¥26.4k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥306b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥884b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= CN¥340b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥646b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$35.4, the company appears quite undervalued at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NasdaqGS:JD Discounted Cash Flow June 4th 2023
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at JD.com as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.107. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for JD.com
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Multiline Retail market.
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For JD.com, we've compiled three additional aspects you should further examine:
Risks: Take risks, for example - JD.com has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does JD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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