By Tim Kelly
NAGOYA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - To the sound of drums and a children's choir, Mitsubishi Aircraft on Saturday rolled out Japan's first commercial jet in half a century, amid doubts it can attain an ambition to sell more than 2,000 aircraft in a competitive market segment.
Developed by a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that includes Toyota Corp as a shareholder, the $42-million regional jet, with just under 100 seats, is Japan's second bid to break into the commercial aircraft market.
"This has been a long-held dream of ours, and one that all of Japan has waited for," Hideaki Omiya, chairman of Mitsubishi Heavy, said at a factory in Nagoya in central Japan, which was also the site of the roll-out, 75 years ago, of the prototype of the World War Two-era Zero fighter plane.
The ceremony, attended by about 500 people, kicks off a sprint to complete flight tests before the first delivery of the aircraft in June 2017 to ANA Holdings Inc.
That target is three years later than initially planned.
Japan failed in its last attempt to break into the commercial aircraft market in the 1960s, with a 64-seat turboprop dubbed the YS-11. Only 182 planes, built by a consortium that included Mitsubishi Heavy, were ever made.
Mitsubishi has so far won 191 firm orders from customers including U.S. regional groups Trans States Holdings and SkyWest Inc, and Japan Airlines Co Ltd.
Analysts say the figure is less than the several hundred planes it needs to sell to break even and far behind the orders it needs to overtake the market leader, Brazil's Embraer SA .
That goal presents a "significant challenge," Rob Morris, head of consultancy at aviation market specialist Ascend, said before Saturday's ceremony.
The MRJ's biggest selling point, Mitsubishi says, is its ability to burn a fifth less fuel than aircraft of similar size, thanks to new-generation engines from Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp.
"With the rollout we are moving from a concept on paper to actual testing of real aircraft," the MRJ's chief engineer, Nobuo Kishi, said in Nagoya, when asked what was the biggest challenge facing the development team.
The current development budget of around $1.8 billion does not account for the costs of delays so far, Kishi added.
CHALLENGING NUMBERS
Mitsubishi, which is also challenging Canada's Bombardier Inc, estimates demand for 5,000 regional jets over the next 20 years, of which it aims to capture a half. Ascend puts its prospects closer to a fifth and forecasts a market for 4,071 jets worth $128.3 billion by 2033.