(Bloomberg) -- Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris’s Fine Gael party is locked in a virtual dead heat with Sinn Fein in the general election, suggesting his decision to go to the country early didn’t yield the advantage he predicted.

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Fine Gael won 21% of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, the official exit poll showed. Sinn Fein won 21.1%, while Fianna Fail, Fine Gael’s coalition partner, was on 19.5.%. The poll had a margin of error of 1.4%.

Even so, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail going back into government is still the most likely outcome — both have ruled out working with Sinn Fein. But a tight race is not ideal for Harris, especially if he emerges with less support than his rival.

The premier called the vote, which wasn’t due to be held until March, after his party surged in opinion polls since he became Taoiseach in April. That, plus a large giveaway budget in October and a slide in support for Sinn Fein, made it seem like the optimal time to seek a new mandate.

Whoever forms the next government will do so at an opportune time, with Ireland enjoying a budget surplus that is rare among European nations and tax receipts expected to soar further. Management of Ireland’s billions has been front and center in the campaign, with parties competing on promises to fix infrastructure and end a housing shortage.

But Harris’s election campaign was beset with slip-ups, the worst a viral video of him walking away from a disability care worker and dismissing her view that the government wasn’t doing enough. Harris later apologized.

Based on the exit poll, Fine Gael’s support has slumped since an Irish Times survey in September — before the election announcement — showed Fine Gael at 27%, Sinn Fein at 20% and Fianna Fail at 19%.

“If the 21% is accurate, it is still lower than what Fine Gael were running pre the calling of the election,” Gail McElroy, political science professor at Trinity College Dublin, told RTE. “They might have hoped at one stage having 24, 25% — so it is probably a little depressed.”

For Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Fein, the exit poll points to a slight recovery after a turbulent few months.

At the start of the year, Sinn Fein had appeared on course to form a government for the first time since Ireland gained independence in 1922. But the left-leaning party struggled to adapt to growing concerns about immigration, leading to a lackluster performance in local and European elections in June.