Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Innofactor Plc (HEL:IFA1V) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Levered FCF (€, Millions)
€3.80m
€4.20m
€4.40m
€4.60m
€4.40m
€4.28m
€4.20m
€4.16m
€4.13m
€4.11m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -2.73%
Est @ -1.79%
Est @ -1.12%
Est @ -0.66%
Est @ -0.34%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6%
€3.5
€3.6
€3.4
€3.3
€2.9
€2.6
€2.4
€2.2
€2.0
€1.8
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €27m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 0.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €51m÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= €22m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €49m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €0.8, the company appears quite good value at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
HLSE:IFA1V Intrinsic value May 18th 2020
Important assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Innofactor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.207. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Innofactor, We've compiled three fundamental factors you should further examine:
Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Innofactor (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
Future Earnings: How does IFA1V's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the HLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.
