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The last three months have been tough on Smartpay Holdings Limited (NZSE:SPY) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 42%. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. In fact, the share price is 241% higher today. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for Smartpay Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years of share price growth, Smartpay Holdings moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It is of course excellent to see how Smartpay Holdings has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling Smartpay Holdings stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Smartpay Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 51%, against a market gain of about 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 28% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Smartpay Holdings you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.