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It's normal to be annoyed when stock you own has a declining share price. But sometimes broader market conditions have more of an impact on prices than the actual business performance. The Select Medical Holdings Corporation (NYSE:SEM) is down 41% over a year, but the total shareholder return is 11% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market return of 6.2%. We note that it has not been easy for shareholders over three years, either; the share price is down 30% in that time.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Unhappily, Select Medical Holdings had to report a 15% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 41% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Select Medical Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow .
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Select Medical Holdings' TSR for the last 1 year was 11%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Select Medical Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 17% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Select Medical Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Select Medical Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.