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We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example, after five long years the Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU) share price is a whole 64% lower. That's not a lot of fun for true believers. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 30% in the last year. Even worse, it's down 13% in about a month, which isn't fun at all.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
View our latest analysis for Northern Minerals
Northern Minerals recorded just AU$4,468,676 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Northern Minerals will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. We can see that they needed to raise more capital, and took that step recently despite the fact that it would have been dilutive to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Northern Minerals investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.
Our data indicates that Northern Minerals had more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported. That made it extremely high risk, in our view. But since the share price has dived 18% per year, over 5 years , it looks like some investors think it's time to abandon ship, so to speak, even though the cash reserves look a little better with the capital raising. The image below shows how Northern Minerals' balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.