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What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. And from a first read, things don't look too good at QuinStreet (NASDAQ:QNST), so let's see why.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for QuinStreet, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.0073 = US$1.8m ÷ (US$410m - US$160m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).
Thus, QuinStreet has an ROCE of 0.7%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Interactive Media and Services industry average of 6.6%.
Check out our latest analysis for QuinStreet
In the above chart we have measured QuinStreet's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for QuinStreet .
The Trend Of ROCE
There is reason to be cautious about QuinStreet, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 5.5%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect QuinStreet to turn into a multi-bagger.
While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 39%, which has impacted the ROCE. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. While the ratio isn't currently too high, it's worth keeping an eye on this because if it gets particularly high, the business could then face some new elements of risk.
The Key Takeaway
All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. The market must be rosy on the stock's future because even though the underlying trends aren't too encouraging, the stock has soared 128%. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.