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If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Deutsche Telekom (ETR:DTE) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Deutsche Telekom, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.05 = €14b ÷ (€321b - €49b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).
Therefore, Deutsche Telekom has an ROCE of 5.0%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 5.2%, it's still a low return by itself.
View our latest analysis for Deutsche Telekom
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Deutsche Telekom compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
What Does the ROCE Trend For Deutsche Telekom Tell Us?
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Deutsche Telekom doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 8.3% over the last five years. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
The Bottom Line On Deutsche Telekom's ROCE
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Deutsche Telekom's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Since the stock has gained an impressive 57% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.
One more thing: We've identified 3 warning signs with Deutsche Telekom (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them would certainly be useful.