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Jim Gillies: I largely think it is, but I think there's a good side of idiocy at play here, let's start with Palantir. Look, this is a company that basically trundled alongside the S&P for the first six or seven months of 2024. Then it went stupid in the back half of the year. Speculators showed up not calling them investors. Speculators decided that, Hey, given the way the political leadership and outcome of the US election, we looked like it was leaning. This is a company that's going to do spectacularly well because something favorable, government conditions, something. That's an interesting growth strategy, but, it didn't really matter. A few folks could even articulate what it is that Palantir actually does.

It just went up because people knew stuff and because it was going up. At one point, it was up 400% in the second half of 2024. It achieved a valuation level of over 100 times sales. Boy, you'd better be growing to the moon and be doing something that the world desperately needs to even try to justify a 100 times sales level. Bluntly, that's idiocy. That's dumb. That is in nothing teaches like fire territory. That is, you're about to learn a lesson you can learn no other way territory.

That's now started. You're down 30% and look, if we go back to the 25 times sales that it was getting last summer, which is still elevated valuation, Ricky. The stock price falls two thirds from here. This isn't investing. This is speculation. It's based on political thesis and theater. It's silly, frankly. MicroStrategy or I guess they're calling themselves Strategy now. Look, this isn't a real business anymore. There is a real, and I will argue inconsequential software business underlying things here. But the success of the stock prices, maybe the software business is worth 3 billion $4 billion, is what it was before. The Bitcoin strategy took play. Look, you can have whatever opinions you want on Bitcoin as an investment. This is not actually me ranting about Bitcoin at all. It's just simply, look, MicroStrategy or Strategy. Their business is basically now buying and holding Bitcoin. Calls itself the world's first and largest Bitcoin treasury company. Fine, fair enough. Is that something we needed? I am struck. I went to their investor relations website this morning. First thing you see is advertisements from new Merch. I had the thought, this is not a serious company run by serious people. But here's where the rubber hits the road.

At the end, when they did their Q4 investor presentation, Bitcoin was just shy of $98,000. At that time, you had an enterprise value for MicroStrategy, which is market cap plus net debt. You an enterprise value of $96 billion. You had Bitcoin net asset value of $46 billion. You're basically paying 2X what Bitcoin is worth to essentially own Bitcoin on a look through basis. Look, if you want to own Bitcoin, there's cheaper ways to do it. Go own it directly, go buy it via any number of the ETFs or what have you that have sprung up that are not trading at 2X NAV.

Owning Bitcoin via MicroStrategy is to my mind, silly, which seems to be the operative word going on today. Then it's sillier when you realize that they leverage the entire company to Bitcoin appreciating in price for ever Amen. It's they have no ability to control, the price of Bitcoin. It's completely outside of their ken. But we're going to leverage the company to it. Then, so right now, I think it's fallen. MicroStrategy has fallen over 50% from its November high. Largely Bitcoin $86,000 today, so it's dropped from the 1998 at the time of the our qter earnings report. What happens if, say, God forbid, Bitcoin falls to $50,000. Don't tell me that can't happen. Why does the next 50% move have to be up rather than down?

Bluntly, this is a true believer stock. It's turned into a true believer stock. Again, there is a software business here underneath that might be worth something, and Bitcoin is worth something because we all agree it's worth something, or at least markets agree it's worth. But to have levered your entire company to Bitcoin only going up seems it's going to work really well when Bitcoin is going up. It's wonderful. When it's not, when it goes down, when it gets more less trust in the process. I think Bitcoin will survive longer than MicroStrategy will. For me, that's where I drop off. Then, unfortunately, they also added MicroStrategy to the NASDAQ 100 as well.

Again, I'm going to call that silly, but at least fine. The QQQ, the NASDAQ is down 5% in the past week. At least if you want to participate that way, if you own NASDAQ index funds, I do. Participation index will at least protect you from some of the damage in the event of a meltdown. Look, I'm going to give you this one because I always try to work it in. Canadians at least have an understanding of what can go wrong when an index blows up because we had Nortel, which was one third of our index, and it went to zero. Thankfully, MicroStrategy is nowhere near one third of the NASDAQ index. If it were to go to zero, not saying it's going to, but again, things can happen. It should at least minimize the damage to there, but there's a lot of other high growth stocks that are frankly, getting chopped down.

Ricky Mulvey: I just got back from getting a cup of coffee, so I hope I didn't too much.

Jim Gillies: You didn't miss nothing of consequence.

Ricky Mulvey: For those keeping track, I do believe that the under eight minutes for the Nortel reference did hit on the Gillies rant about where we're at.

Jim Gillies: I hope the payout worked for everybody.

Ricky Mulvey: How about Little Chaser? We've just had this froth to get you all fired up, and there's nothing. Honestly, if you're having trouble sleeping at night, maybe you need a little bit of, you want to relax. You listen to some Home Depot earnings. There is something that happened that's somewhat, I think, significant for the company, and that's that comparable sales turned positive for the first time in eight quarters. I don't know. That seems like a big deal, right Jim.

Jim Gillies: It does. Sounds pretty good to me. It's good.

Ricky Mulvey: You really mix it up, man. You just did a seven minute answer to one question. Then I set you up with an earnings question. You're like, keep moving.

Jim Gillies: I can talk Home Depot earnings, if you want. No problem.

Ricky Mulvey: Well, how about the cash flow story with this company? Because when I'm looking at the earnings, and I'm a Home Depot shareholder, and you've told the story on this show before. What a magnificent cash flow story, because even though they're not growing sales like kooky, they're cutting their share count, they're boosting their dividend, and that's going to reward the long term shareholders. But now when we're looking back on the past year, it seems like maybe that's not happening in the future. Home Depot reduced its share count, it was by 1% over the past year. Dividends up 2.2%. If you're holding onto the stock, you get about a little over 2% dividend payout. The longer chart, if you look at how they've increased their earnings per share, that's rosier. That's good for the long term shareholders. But when I look at what's going on this year, I don't know, Jim. It seems like that thesis might not be what it was.

Jim Gillies: It's very possible. The story might be fraying. I think it's intact for now, and I think there's a very good reason why 2024 is a step back from really the cash cow policy they seem to have had since emerging from the global financial crisis. From about February or March of 2009, so we're past the global financial crisis. They have aggressively bought back shares. They've aggressively increased their dividend. Dividends gone from $0.90 a year to $9.20 a year. It's up 15.6% annualized since 2009. New store openings are way down. That has been the cash flow story.

It's been a really great cash flow story. If you were a buyer in March of 2009, you're getting your cost basis back now at this point, every two years, just from the dividend loan. In the share account, the share price has gone from 20 bucks to almost 400 bucks. It's been a fantastic story, but you are correct. Last year, it looks like the cash flow story got a little bit derailed. That can be almost chalked up to one thing, and that is the acquisition of SRS back in March of 2024. SRS is a residential specialty trade distribution company serving guys like roofers, landscapers, pool contractors, among others. That acquisition cost about 17.6 billion dollar of cash plus a minor amount of stock, which is why the stock this year as standing only went down by about 1% last year because they added a bit more for this. That basically took all of the free cash flow from last year went to this acquisition. I think that's why they really cut back on their share buybacks.

They really cut back, you already mentioned, the dividend has only been hiked by 2% this year, just over two. If we see them course correct this year, they flip back to, we made that acquisition. We're now going to take our cash flow, maybe pay down the debt that was associated with that acquisition, or as I like to say, all the cash flow they generated made the acquisition happen. The dividend last year got funded by debt. Let's pay that debt off, shall we? Or at least, of course, correct a little bit. If they go back to that and this back to what they were doing from 2009 through 2023, I'm going to say the cash cow story is intact. However, if we start seeing them make other acquisitions and going for other growth that's non traditional, not new stores and maybe diversifying a little bit to steal from Peter Lynch. At that point, maybe it makes more sense to own Home Depot as part of a diversified index strategy rather than owning it individually. I will agree with you. The cash cow story looks like it hits pause. I want to see them hit the unpause button for 2025 going forward.

Ricky Mulvey: Fair enough. When I look at a company like Home Depot, which I already mentioned I own that's one where you better really be doing something special for me to pay attention to that versus the SCHD Schwab dividend fund, where I don't have to do any work, and I can collect a healthy dividend, and I don't have to listen to an earnings call about how they are growing their Pro wallet share through a unique system of capabilities, building new stores, and creating the best interconnected shopping experience Jim. Let's go to Celsius as we wrap up. This is one that the stock chart speaking of wacky stock charts, let's see if you're on the Celsius bandwagon. Last week, the company reported, and the surface level results not so good.

The Guarana seed extract rush, not a sugar rush, sugar free, seems to be stalling out. Sales are up just 3% over the past year. This is a stock that traded for 36 times sales at one point. You can't do that and maintain that multiple. But the shareholders got a glimmer of hope. As Alani knew this acquisition came down, a female focused energy drink brand, which Celsius bought up for $1.8 billion. Hey, maybe that's enough to restart growth. Today, the stock is getting sold off again. Definitely this has fallen from COVID high as I wanted to check in on it with you. Let's talk about the purchase first. Should I be excited as a Celsius shareholder about this Alani Nu acquisition?

Jim Gillies: Probably not.

Ricky Mulvey: Cool.

Jim Gillies: I'm not sure what a female focused energy drink brand is. I've never really gendered my beverages, but maybe I should start.

Ricky Mulvey: Marketing, Monster is for boys. They do Motocross and UFC.

Jim Gillies: Sure. Look, I've never seen Alani Nu product, but if it tastes good, I'll drink it. My first inclination when I saw this deal last week, even though the dock did react very happily to it, it's given it all back now. This is what buying growth looks like. That can work out. There's lots of companies that do roll up strategies and overtime prudent roll ups can work out very well. I'm not sure this one qualifies, though, and I was wondering like they're claiming they're paying 2.8 times revenue for Alani Nu and 12 times on expected adjusted EBITA with all of the synergies just assumed to have rolled in, which I find optimistic. I wish them well, but I do find it optimistic.

They did pay some of the purchase price in new equity. The sellers of Alani Nu are getting roughly the same percentage of ownership that Pepsi did when they invested signing a distribution deal with Celsius in 2022. That's when Celsius really caught fire because everyone said, look, Pepsi, and I think correctly speculated that Pepsi, at one point down the line will probably be an owner of Celsius. But I think they'll only be that owner of Celsius at a price that makes sense, and distribution definitely hit a wall last year inventory wise. I think Pepsi may have overestimated demand. I know that didn't used to see a lot of Celsius in my neck of the woods. Let's be careful. That's more necdata than anything else, but didn't use to see a lot of Celsius, frankly, at all. I now see it everywhere. My kids who probably drink more energy drinks than I would approve of, but I don't know about it officially. They have what limited Celsius consumption they have is now, it's yesterday's drink, I'll put it that way, at least to them. Again, it's only a couple of teenagers or early 20 something, so maybe don't a lot of the fanic business.

Jim Gillies: I'm just looking at it, but look Celsius has no acquisition history to speak of. Acquisition and intelligent integration. Doesn't mean they can't do it. Means they don't have any experience doing it. Again, I'm having trouble shaking the notion that this was buying growth in the wake of a rapid slowdown in the growth of their core business. Now, I will fully admit I have a bit of a side hobby, and I like to find COVID-era fallen angels, stocks that have real products, which Celsius does. That have gotten just waffled because they were at ridiculous valuations during the COVID era.

Ricky Mulvey: Can I give you two scenarios now?

Jim Gillies: Sure.

Ricky Mulvey: The two scenarios, you mentioned the Fallen Angel status. Going forward, I see there's multiple scenarios. These are two that I think are both honestly seem likely. We'll see which one you're buying for your COVID Fallen Angel hobby. Number 1 is that we have a category that's intensely difficult and also maybe declining a little bit in energy drinks. You're not health-conscious consumers are not just all running to energy drinks, and Celsius just overpaid for an acquisition, but that won't restart its growth story. That's scenario one. Then scenario two, which also, I think, is somewhat reasonable, is that here's an energy drink company that had some hiccups with distribution and inventory as it got integrated into PepsiCo, but now it's much closer to a Coca-Cola earnings multiple, which is very mature, very little growth ahead. Investors are far too pessimistic about its category-leading products, which it now has in the sugar-free space. Back to your COVID Fallen Angel hobby?

Jim Gillies: I think it's probably closer to the second one, which I think is actually what you probably want. I think Celsius is. I don't think their products are going away. I think they have value. I think there's real value there. It just might be real value that's lower than the current market cap or enterprise value. That's the problem is that you want to assess. I like my stocks with a lot of pessimism built in. If I can come in when just everyone else has just sold them off, I'm happy, and maybe slightly pathological that way. But if you can turn something that everyone else has lost faith in, you can get a multi-bagger before other people notice, like a two and three-fold. I'll give you a couple of examples. If I told you Peloton has tripled off of its bottom since which I think was last summer. A lot of people go, have a Peloton, still garbage, but I wasn't buying at 160. I was buying in the five and six range and bottom to three.

There's a company that's now been taken out called Nouve, which was a Canadian payment's processor. It was traded in both US and Canada. I think it topped out at 160, and it just got taken out at 45, I believe, 44. Now, if you were a buyer at 160, that really sucks for you. If you were a buyer like Hidden Gems Canada members at 23, it's less sucky for you. I'm looking at a bunch of fallen Angels from the COVID era, Celsius included, as to whether once all the excitement has been drained away, is there a real business here with real cash flows that create real value for shareholders, and can we buy it on the cheap? I'm watching Celsius. I'm just not yet ready to declare it time to jump into that particular.

Ricky Mulvey: On the watch list, not quite on the buying list. Jim Gillies. Appreciate you being her. Thank you for your time, your insight.

Jim Gillies: Thank you, Ricky.

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Up next, Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp offer up some estate planning lessons from Warren Buffett that you can take with you, even if you're not a multi-billionaire.

Alison Southwick: Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965 and has since become one of the wealthiest people in the world and enriched millions of shareholders along the way, but you didn't need to be an owner of the stock at any time between then and now to benefit from Buffett's avuncular wisdom. Fun fact, looked it up ahead of time, and the feminine version of avuncular is Murtural. Am I saying it wrong? I'm sure you'll let me know. Over the decades, through his letters to shareholders and in interviews, Buffett has shared countless financial and life lessons. This includes how he wants his enormous fortune to be dispersed after his life comes to an end.

Robert Brokamp: A letter published last November, Buffett, who is 94 years old, wrote about continuing a practice that he began in 2006, and that is donating some of his Berkshire shares to charitable foundations operated by his children. Those donations, as well as annual share transfers to the Gates Foundation, have reduced the number of shares he owns by 57%. Yet Buffett is still worth approximately $150 billion, and he regularly explains what will happen to all those billions when he passes away.

Alison Southwick: Unfortunately, you don't have to be a billionaire to take some tips from Buffett's estate plan. Here are several to consider. Starting with everyone buckle up now because this one's going to blow you away. Actually, have an estate plan. Sounds so simple, but it's so hard.

Robert Brokamp: It is. In his November letter, Buffett wrote, "Father Time always wins. To date, I've been very lucky, but before long, he will get around to me." Indeed, he's going to get around to all of us, but despite the fact that we're all going to die, sorry to let you know about that. Most Americans actually haven't done any estate planning. That's according to the 2025 Wills and estate planning study from caring.com. Only 24% of Americans have a will, according to the study, which is actually down from 33% in 2022. For most people, a will isn't enough. You should have a much more comprehensive estate plan, and that should include updated beneficiary designations on things like your retirement accounts, insurance policies, powers of attorney, advanced healthcare directives, maybe a trust, and a letter that explains where to find all your important documents, accounts, and assets if something happens to you.

Alison Southwick: Once you've done the thing that apparently everyone hates to do, you're going to actually need to revisit it and regularly update your estate plan.

Robert Brokamp: Buffett revises his plan every few years. For example, he's written that he and his first wife, Susie, assumed that actually he would die first, which would then leave Susie to watch over the distribution of his estate, but then after Susie died in 2004, Buffett had to change his plans, leading to his decision to donate shares every year, beginning in 2006. That was also the year he married his second wife, Astrid. Another notable change in Buffett's estate plan was that in a 2006 letter, Buffett indicated that the Gates Foundation would receive a bequest of more Berkshire shares when he passed away, but he stepped down as a trustee of the foundation in 2021, and interview last June told the Wall Street Journal that donations to the Gates Foundation will cease upon his death.

Life happens; people move into and out of your life due to birth, death, marriage, divorce, estrangement. People move to different states, which could invalidate parts of an estate plan, especially advanced healthcare directives, what you own and how much will also change. Be like Buffett, update your estate plan every few years to account for any changes in your assets, your address, your family, or your assessment of who should get what.

Alison Southwick: The next way you can be like Buffett is. Because you're listening to this podcast, I assume you probably own some amount of stock. The good news is you can donate and bequeath appreciated stock, just like Buffett.

Robert Brokamp: That's right. By donating Berkshire Hathaway stock, Warren Buffett avoids having to pay capital gains on those shares. Also, if he itemizes deductions on his tax return, which I assume he does, Buffett can deduct the fair market value of the donation up to a limit. On top of that, any shares of stock that his kids or other heirs will inherit it's going to get a stepped up cost basis to the value of the stock as of the date of Buffett's death. And they're not going to have to pay taxes on the huge capital gains embedded in those shares.

Alison Southwick: The next thing you're going to want to do is consider your heir's ability to manage an inheritance. Let's be honest, some of your kids are better with money than others.

Robert Brokamp: Or they just might not be old enough so in a 2023 letter announcing that year's donations of Berkshire stock, Buffett wrote, "My three children are the executors of my current will, as well as the name trustees of the Charitable Trust that will receive 99% plus of my wealth, pursuant to the provisions of the will. They were not fully prepared for this awesome responsibility in 2006, but they are now" the lesson here is, if your heirs will not be capable of responsibly managing the money or responsibilities they will inherit, they could be due to age, maybe sub optimal financial habits, or maybe they're in a problematic marriage and you're worried about the poor judgment of your kid in law, then it makes sense to put others in charge until your beneficiaries are ready.

Alison Southwick: Babies are so dumb with money. Maybe you might want to be like Buffett and use trust to have a say in how your bequests are handled.

Robert Brokamp: One way to maintain control of your money from beyond the grave is through trust. The money is going to be managed and disbursed according to the terms you write into the trust, and it's going to be managed by whomever you name as the trustee. If you have an heir or a few who are not particularly savvy about investments, you can dictate how the assets are allocated, and it actually doesn't have to be very complicated. In his 2013 annual letter, Buffett wrote, one bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife's benefit. My advice to the trustee could not be more simple. But 10% of the cash in short term government bonds and 90% in a very low cost S&P 500 index fund. I suggest vanguards. I believe that the trusts long term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors, whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals who employ high fee managers. Also, if you have heirs who are prone to overspending, the trust can dictate how much money is dispersed at regular intervals and even what the money can be spent on.

Alison Southwick: Now, the next one here, man, it's delivered in such a creepy but such a great way. The lesson is to give with a warm hand, not a cold one. That's your cold hand we're talking about here.

Robert Brokamp: Yes. If you like Buffett, know that you will not need all the money you've accumulated over your lifetime, why wait until you've passed away to help family members and charities? Yes, it's definitely important to ensure that your money is going to last as long as you do and that you account for the possibility or really actually likelihood that you'll need to pay for long term care when you get older, but if it's certain that your beneficiaries will receive an inheritance, it might be more useful to them now. When they're perhaps trying to raise a family, maybe trying to buy a home, paying for their kid's college degrees than many years from now. Plus, you'll be around to bask in their appreciation.

Alison Southwick: Once you've done all these things to be more like Buffett with your planning, well, you need to probably talk to your heirs about it. Review the plan with them.

Robert Brokamp: This one might be somewhat controversial, but I think it makes a lot of sense. So in last November's letter, Buffett wrote, "I have one further suggestion for all parents, whether they are of modest or staggering wealth. When your children are mature, have them read your will before you sign it. Be sure each child understands both the logic for your decisions and the responsibilities they will encounter upon your death. If any, have questions or suggestions, listen carefully and adopt those found sensible. You don't want your children asking why in respect to testamentary decisions when you are no longer able to respond. Testamentary basically means things that happen upon your death. Over the years, Charlie, and of course, he's talked about Charlie Bunker, the late vice chairman of Berkshire, and I saw many families driven apart after the posthumous dictates of the will left beneficiaries confused and sometimes angry. This discussion with your family is particularly important.

I would say, if you won't be leaving equal amounts to your kids. You want to explain your reasoning why you can and take into consideration the responses you receive. The main takeaway, of course, is that a lack of clarity now could lead to legal fights over your estate when you pass away, which could be costly, time-consuming, and really cause permanent riffs among your family members, which I'm sure you don't want. Also, you might want to ask your heirs about preferences for inheriting items that might have more sentimental value than financial value. We're talking about things like family heirlooms, collectibles, even, like, furniture, and knick-knacks, and you want to resolve situations where more than one person wants something.

All that said, I will point out that in his letter, Buffett emphasized that this is a recommendation for when your children are mature. It might be better to withhold information from one or more children if the knowledge of your estate plan will lead to them doing things like not working enough or not saving enough or basically just pestering you for advance on the inheritance. If you plan to leave unequal amounts to heirs and you don't want them to know about it, work with an attorney to create trusts that have more privacy. Just know that these types of family secrets often have a way of eventually coming to light."

Alison Southwick: The last way you can be like Buffett in your estate planning is to leave the world a better place than how you found it.

Robert Brokamp: In the interview with the Wall Street Journal from last June, Buffett said that his wealth, "should be used to help people that haven't been as lucky as we have been." There's eight billion people in the world, and me and my kids, we've been in the luckiest 100th of 1% or something. There's lots of ways to help people. You don't have to be a billionaire like Buffett to appreciate how fortunate it is to be born in the US or really any developed country with enough excess cash to invest and not really have to worry about paying for the necessities. Yes, charity begins at home, so you definitely want to make sure that your family will be set, but then maybe consider charities to help others achieve financial stability. If I may make a suggestion, one example is Together We Bate, which is an organization that provides job training to women facing barriers to employment. I admire the organization so much I joined the board of directors. If you're looking for a good cause to support, visit togetherebate.org to make a donation or maybe order some delicious grid lo or cookies.

If you want to be like Buffett and create a charitable fund that exists beyond your death and it is distributed by your children, look into a donor advised fund. These are offered by financial services firms like Fidelity, Schwab Vanguard, as well as some organizations like the National Philanthropic Trust. A donor advised fund could be funded during your life or at your death. The sponsoring organization manages all the money, but you or your heirs determine which charities will receive the distributions and when."

Alison Southwick: Bro, how about you give us your parting advice that our listeners can quite literally take to their grave?

Robert Brokamp: Well, we had to Fool our fans of Dot Yourself investing, assuming you have the requisite time and knowledge, of course, but we're not really fans of Dot Yourself estate planning. Find a qualified, experienced estate planning attorney in your area. It's not going to be cheap, but it's going to be money well spent. Make sure you follow through on all the recommendations, such as changing the beneficiary designations or retitling assets in the name of the trust. A lot of good estate plans fail because not all the Is were dotted or the Ts were crossed. Then, tell your relatives that you've updated your estate plan and encourage them to do the same because you're going to be the person who pays the price if your parents or other relatives don't have an updated plan.

Ricky Mulvey: As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. The Motley Fool only picks products that it would personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Ricky Mulvey. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

Alison Southwick has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Jim Gillies has positions in Berkshire Hathaway and Peloton Interactive and has the following options: short April 2025 $8 puts on Peloton Interactive. Ricky Mulvey has positions in Celsius and Home Depot and has the following options: long March 2025 $25 calls on Celsius. Robert Brokamp has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin, Celsius, Home Depot, Monster Beverage, Palantir Technologies, and Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

An Investor's Look at Palantir and MicroStrategy (Strategy) was originally published by The Motley Fool