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Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 26% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been less than pleasing. In fact, the price has declined 31% in a year, falling short of the returns you could get by investing in an index fund.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Jenoptik
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Jenoptik share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 10%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
Given the yield is quite low, at 1.0%, we doubt the dividend can shed much light on the share price. Jenoptik's revenue is actually up 48% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Jenoptik is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Jenoptik shareholders are down 30% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 19%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.5% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Jenoptik better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Jenoptik has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.