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Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term IQVIA Holdings Inc. (NYSE:IQV) shareholders, since the share price is down 29% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 23%. Furthermore, it's down 15% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
View our latest analysis for IQVIA Holdings
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, IQVIA Holdings actually managed to grow EPS by 25% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
Revenue is actually up 3.8% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating IQVIA Holdings further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
IQVIA Holdings is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling IQVIA Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
A Different Perspective
Investors in IQVIA Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 14%, against a market gain of about 26%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand IQVIA Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with IQVIA Holdings .