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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Prudential plc (LON:PRU) share price has gained 22% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 31% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.
On a more encouraging note the company has added UK£1.1b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
Check out our latest analysis for Prudential
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Prudential saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 33% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 12% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Prudential's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Prudential, it has a TSR of -28% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Prudential shareholders gained a total return of 1.7% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 1.1% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Prudential that you should be aware of before investing here.