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Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Although, when we looked at Kogan.com (ASX:KGN), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Kogan.com:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.15 = AU$20m ÷ (AU$243m - AU$104m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
Thus, Kogan.com has an ROCE of 15%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 9.3% generated by the Multiline Retail industry.
See our latest analysis for Kogan.com
In the above chart we have measured Kogan.com's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Kogan.com .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Kogan.com doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 45% over the last five years. However it looks like Kogan.com might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
On a related note, Kogan.com has decreased its current liabilities to 43% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money. Either way, they're still at a pretty high level, so we'd like to see them fall further if possible.
The Key Takeaway
To conclude, we've found that Kogan.com is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. And investors appear hesitant that the trends will pick up because the stock has fallen 11% in the last five years. On the whole, we aren't too inspired by the underlying trends and we think there may be better chances of finding a multi-bagger elsewhere.