If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. Having said that, after a brief look, James Fisher and Sons (LON:FSJ) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on James Fisher and Sons is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.061 = UK£24m ÷ (UK£609m - UK£227m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
Thus, James Fisher and Sons has an ROCE of 6.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Infrastructure industry average of 8.3%.
See our latest analysis for James Fisher and Sons
In the above chart we have measured James Fisher and Sons' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
What Can We Tell From James Fisher and Sons' ROCE Trend?
We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at James Fisher and Sons. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 11% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on James Fisher and Sons becoming one if things continue as they have.
On a side note, James Fisher and Sons' current liabilities have increased over the last five years to 37% of total assets, effectively distorting the ROCE to some degree. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.