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We believe investing is smart because history shows that stock markets go higher in the long term. But if when you choose to buy stocks, some of them will be below average performers. Over the last year the Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) share price is up 15%, but that's less than the broader market return. In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 0.7% lower than it was three years ago.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Coles Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Coles Group was able to grow EPS by 8.3% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 15% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Coles Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Coles Group, it has a TSR of 20% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Coles Group provided a TSR of 20% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 6% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Coles Group's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.