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The busiest week of this corporate earnings season is here, and a notable theme has emerged so far — investors are rooting for companies.
Data from Bank of America's equity strategy team published Monday showed that with about 45% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported results, companies that miss expectations are being punished less than usual.
The firm's data showed the stock price of companies that missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines (read: sales and profits) lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 2.2% on the day following these results, less than the 2.4% underperformance to the index usually seen during earnings periods.
On an intraday basis, these companies saw their shares actually rise 0.6% on the day following their poor reports. This means the negative reactions were seen in either after-hours or premarket trading, when thinner volumes can lead to more volatility.
In other words, the more investors looked at a company's miss relative to estimates — and heard from executives on the call, talked to analysts, and so on — the more likely they were to be supportive of the stock.
This support is also not indicative of an investing public that is taking pity on companies that can't keep up in an environment where profit growth is expected to be broadening out. Companies that beat expectations are seeing their shares outperform the S&P 500 by 2.4% the next day, well above the 1.5% relative outperformance these stocks usually enjoy.
With 34% of companies in the S&P 500 set to report results this week, the forgiveness suggested in BofA's data will be put to the test.
But some early returns this week suggest there remains a general willingness from investors to support companies that report weak results but outline a turn in their business coming soon.
Take McDonald's (MCD), for example.
The fast food giant reported second quarter results that disappointed as same-store sales fell for the first time in four years. But comments from executives on its earnings call pointing to new promotions, notably its $5 meal deal, driving an uptick in traffic were enough to satisfy investors: Shares rose over 4% on Monday.
A reminder, too, that all companies report earnings in the context of two distinct timelines: what investors want from their company and what investors want from every company.
And the biggest wins come when both line up.
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