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With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37.6x Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 13x and even P/E's lower than 8x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Alibaba Group Holding's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
See our latest analysis for Alibaba Group Holding
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Is There Enough Growth For Alibaba Group Holding?
Alibaba Group Holding's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 73%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 61% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 54% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 9.6% each year, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
In light of this, it's understandable that Alibaba Group Holding's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Bottom Line On Alibaba Group Holding's P/E
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Alibaba Group Holding maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Alibaba Group Holding, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.