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If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But you can do a lot better than that by buying good quality businesses for attractive prices. For example, the Thurgauer Kantonalbank (VTX:TKBP) share price is up 17% in the last five years, slightly above the market return. Also positive is the 5.1% share price rise over the last year.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for Thurgauer Kantonalbank
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Thurgauer Kantonalbank achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 3.4% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 3% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Thurgauer Kantonalbank the TSR over the last 5 years was 34%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 7.8%. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 6% per year. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Thurgauer Kantonalbank that you should be aware of.