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It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For instance the NRW Holdings Limited (ASX:NWH) share price is 103% higher than it was three years ago. That sort of return is as solid as granite. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 16% gain in the last three months.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for NRW Holdings
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, NRW Holdings achieved compound earnings per share growth of 22% per year. We note that the 27% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that NRW Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think NRW Holdings will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for NRW Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was 141%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that NRW Holdings has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 34% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 15%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NRW Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for NRW Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.