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It hasn't been the best quarter for Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 20% in that time. In contrast the stock is up over the last three years. However, it's unlikely many shareholders are elated with the share price gain of 11% over that time, given the rising market.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for Lockheed Martin
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the last three years, Lockheed Martin failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 0.3% (annualized).
While EPS is down but the share price is moving up, neither move is particularly drastic, suggesting the market was previously too pessimistic. Ultimately, though, we don't think it can maintain share price gains without turning around the EPS growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Dive deeper into Lockheed Martin's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Lockheed Martin's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Lockheed Martin the TSR over the last 3 years was 20%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Lockheed Martin shareholders gained a total return of 3.9% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 4% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Lockheed Martin you should know about.