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The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. One great example is Element Fleet Management Corp. (TSE:EFN) which saw its share price drive 159% higher over five years. It's also good to see the share price up 14% over the last quarter. This could be related to the recent financial results, released recently - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Element Fleet Management
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years of share price growth, Element Fleet Management moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the Element Fleet Management share price is up 94% in the last three years. In the same period, EPS is up 18% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 25% average annual increase in the share price over three years. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Element Fleet Management's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Element Fleet Management the TSR over the last 5 years was 187%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!