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Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 15% in the last quarter. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 68%, less than the market return of 156%.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Arbor Realty Trust
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Arbor Realty Trust actually saw its EPS drop 2.0% per year.
So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. It could be that the company is reaching maturity and dividend investors are buying for the yield. The revenue growth of about 12% per year might also encourage buyers.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Arbor Realty Trust
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Arbor Realty Trust, it has a TSR of 188% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Arbor Realty Trust shareholders gained a total return of 7.3% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 24% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Arbor Realty Trust (at least 2 which are concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.