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Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMSF), since the last five years saw the share price fall 24%.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for AMERISAFE
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Looking back five years, both AMERISAFE's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 5.4% per year. This change in EPS is remarkably close to the 5% average annual decrease in the share price. This suggests that market participants have not changed their view of the company all that much. So it's fair to say the share price has been responding to changes in EPS.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on AMERISAFE's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for AMERISAFE the TSR over the last 5 years was 17%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
AMERISAFE shareholders gained a total return of 5.1% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand AMERISAFE better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for AMERISAFE you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.