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It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But no-one can make money on every call, especially in a declining market. While the Adeia Inc. (NASDAQ:ADEA) share price is down 26% in the last three years, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was 193%. That's better than the market which returned 26% over the last three years. Even worse, it's down 13% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. However, we note the price may have been impacted by the broader market, which is down 7.2% in the same time period.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Adeia saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 2.8% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 10% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Dive deeper into Adeia's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Adeia's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Adeia, it has a TSR of 193% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Adeia shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 21% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 26% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Adeia .