While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Hammer Metals Limited (ASX:HMX) share price up 17% in a single quarter. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 75%. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained.

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Check out our latest analysis for Hammer Metals

With just AU$44,002 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Hammer Metals to have proven its business plan. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Hammer Metals finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Hammer Metals has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

Hammer Metals had net cash of just AU$129k when it last reported (December 2018). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. That probably explains why the share price is down 24% per year, over 5 years. The image below shows how Hammer Metals's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Hammer Metals had a tough year, with a total loss of 18%, against a market gain of about 8.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 24% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.