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Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But no-one is immune from buying too high. For example the China Smarter Energy Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1004) share price dropped 53% over five years. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 52% over the last twelve months. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 16% in the last 90 days.
See our latest analysis for China Smarter Energy Group Holdings
China Smarter Energy Group Holdings isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
Over five years, China Smarter Energy Group Holdings grew its revenue at 44% per year. That's better than most loss-making companies. In contrast, the share price is has averaged a loss of 14% per year - that's quite disappointing. This could mean high expectations have been tempered, potentially because investors are looking to the bottom line. If you think the company can keep up its revenue growth, you'd have to consider the possibility that there's an opportunity here.
You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on China Smarter Energy Group Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 2.2% in the twelve months, China Smarter Energy Group Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 52%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 14% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.