How far off is SSP Group plc (LON:SSPG) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in SSP Group. Read for free now.
Is SSP Group Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£121.9m
UK£149.9m
UK£174.7m
UK£218.0m
UK£246.0m
UK£266.8m
UK£284.5m
UK£299.6m
UK£312.9m
UK£324.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x3
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 8.47%
Est @ 6.62%
Est @ 5.32%
Est @ 4.42%
Est @ 3.78%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 13%
UK£108
UK£118
UK£122
UK£136
UK£136
UK£131
UK£124
UK£116
UK£108
UK£99.5
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£1.2b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£3.2b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= UK£992m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£2.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£1.4, the company appears quite good value at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
LSE:SSPG Discounted Cash Flow April 15th 2025
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SSP Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For SSP Group, we've put together three relevant factors you should further examine:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for SSP Group (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does SSPG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
