An Intrinsic Calculation For Bet-At-Homecom AG (ETR:ACX) Shows It’s 42.91% Undervalued

Simply Wall St.

Thu, Nov 22, 2018, 1:16 AM

How far off is Bet-At-Homecom AG (ETR:ACX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, I am going to take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not November 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Bet-At-Home.com by following the link below.

See our latest analysis for Bet-At-Home.com

Is ACX fairly valued?

I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.

5-year cash flow forecast

	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€32.33	€34.65	€40.89	€47.84	€55.49
Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Est @ 18%, capped from 31.28%	Est @ 17%, capped from 31.28%	Est @ 16%, capped from 31.28%
Present Value Discounted @ 8.11%	€29.90	€29.65	€32.36	€35.02	€37.58

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €165m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 0.5%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.1%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF₂₀₂₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €55m × (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (8.1% – 0.5%) = €737m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)⁵ = €737m ÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)⁵ = €499m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is €664m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of €94.59. Relative to the current share price of €54, the stock is quite good value at a 43% discount to what it is available for right now.

XTRA:ACX Intrinsic Value Export November 22nd 18

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Bet-At-Home.com as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For ACX, I’ve compiled three essential factors you should further examine:

Financial Health: Does ACX have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does ACX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ACX? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every DE stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.

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