Interactive Brokers Rolls Out Prediction Markets in Canada, Stock Up

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Zacks Equity Research

Wed, Apr 2, 2025, 8:13 AM 3 min read

Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR launched Forecast Contracts in Canada, allowing investors to trade on the outcomes of several events impacting markets, including economic data releases, political decisions and climate trends.

Following this development, Interactive Brokers’ shares rose 4.5% in yesterday’s trading session.

These contracts will be accessible to Canadian investors through IBKR ForecastTrader, a dedicated web platform, as well as other IBKR trading platforms. Forecast contracts are offered to clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. and Interactive Brokers Hong Kong. These are operated by ForecastEx LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Interactive Brokers, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Rationale Behind IBKR’s Prediction Markets Launch

Interactive Brokers introduced forecast contracts in October 2024, starting with the U.S. elections. These contracts gained traction among investors and had an enormous success, with more than one million contracts traded within the first week of launch.

The recent launch in Canada reflects IBKR’s efforts to cater to the rising demand for predictive tools that can help investors mitigate risk amid an uncertain global environment. This aligns with the company’s efforts to expand its global offerings and enhance its presence in foreign markets.

Forecast contracts provide a simple and cost-effective way to express a view or hedge against the outcomes that can impact the markets. Each contract has a price range of 2 cents to 99 cents, based on the expectation of the market regarding the occurrence of the event.

If the investor's prediction goes wrong, the contract is settled at zero. This offers a real-time view of the market expectations based on dynamic and evolving pricing.

Steve Sanders, executive vice president of marketing and product development at Interactive Brokers, stated, “Forecast Contracts allow investors to engage with the most important questions driving today's markets, from inflation and interest rates to geopolitical developments and climate change. They provide a direct and accessible way to manage risk and express market views through a focused, easy-to-use platform.”

Similarly, Robinhood Markets Inc. HOOD, one of IBKR’s peers, rolled out a prediction markets hub last month within the Robinhood app to capitalize on the growing demand for event contracts. HOOD also launched event contracts in October 2024, just before the U.S. Presidential elections.