Inflation in the UK has surged above the Bank of England’s 2% target, according to official figures, with the rise being driven by a sharp increase in energy bills.

The consumer prices index (CPI) rose to 2.3% in October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed. The jump, which exceeded analysts’ expectations, follows a decline to a three-year low of 1.7% in September.

Economists had anticipated a rise, warning that it was likely driven by higher energy costs after the energy price cap was raised for households in October. The cap increase saw average household energy bills rise by £149 a year, following a 10% hike by the regulator Ofgem. The new cap for a typical dual-fuel household in England, Scotland, and Wales was set at £1,717, up from £1,568.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “Inflation rose this month as the increase in the energy price cap meant higher costs for gas and electricity compared with a fall at the same time last year. These were partially offset by falls in recreation and culture, including live music and theatre ticket prices. The cost of raw materials for businesses continued to fall once again driven by lower crude oil prices.”

Services inflation rose from 4.9% to 5% in October, after analysts had expected it to remain unchanged.

The figure is closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE) as it changes at a slower pace than food and energy prices.

Read more: Budget tax rises for employers will mean slower UK interest rate cuts, says Bailey

Meanwhile, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also rose unexpectedly from 3.2% to 3.3%.It had been expected to fall to 3.1%.

Although energy bills were the main factor behind the rise in inflation, aviation was another driver of price rises. Airfares inflation rebounded from a 5% decline in September to a 6.6% surge in October.

This was the biggest monthly rise in airfares in October since monthly collection began in 2001.

The return of inflation above the BoE’s 2% target is likely to reduce the already low chances of another base rate cut in December.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey this week said that any reductions should be gradual. He expressed concern that the national insurance hike announced in the autumn budget could add to inflationary pressures.

“The Bank will monitor the policy’s impact,” Bailey said, with analysts suggesting that employers might pass on the increased tax burden to consumers.

Earlier this month, it cut borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 4.75%, but signalled that a further move was unlikely before 2025.