The publisher forecasts 5G mobile subscribers will represent 37.5% of all subscriptions by 2026 in Indonesia. 4G will represent about 56.6% of all connections while 2G and 3G will represent about 5% if not shut down earlier. Indosat and Telkomsel launched 5G in 2021 and take-up will ramp to an estimated 12.5m by the end of 2021, while forecasts suggest just under 154m 5G subscribers by 2026 for the Indonesian market.
The Indonesian telecommunications market is a thriving mobile market with five large network operators, an incumbent fixed-line provider with near-monopoly and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals.
Indonesia is among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, driven by growth in both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions. The author forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow strongly in the 2020-25 period after a slow down in 2018. Fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2010, sliding down every year since then.
Expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage and smartphone penetration are the main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector. The country continues to expand its fibre-optic network and 4G coverage, backed by strong investment in capital expenditure. Investment in the telecoms sector grew at a fast pace and momentum maintained expected in the 2020-25 period.
The author expects the overall telecoms market to grow strongly through to 2025 after a decline in 2018 due to the SIM registration regulation with overall market growth resuming from 2020 onwards.
This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Indonesian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following:
Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
Spectrum Holdings
IoT Market Overview
Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
Telco M&A Transaction Database
Key Topics Covered:
1 Key Statistics 1.1 Indonesia's Population 1.2 Indonesia's Economy 1.3 Indonesia's GDP
4 Telecommunications Operators Profile 4.1 Telkom Indonesia Profile 4.1.1 Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix 4.1.2 Telkomsel 4.2 Indosat Ooredoo Profile 4.2.1 Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix 4.3 XL Axiata 4.3.1 XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix 4.4 Tri Indonesia 4.4.1 Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix 4.5 Smartfren Profile 4.5.1 Smartfren Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix 4.6 Link Net 4.6.1 Link Net Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix 4.7 Other Players Profile 4.7.1 MNC Vision 4.7.2 BizNet
5 Mobile market 5.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025 5.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020 5.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2021 5.1.3 Indonesia Smartphone Share, 2021 5.1.4 Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026 5.1.5 Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2019-2026 5.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2026 5.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2020 5.2.2 Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2020 5.2.3 Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2019-2026 5.2.4 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2020 5.3 Spectrum Holdings 5.3.1 5G Development and Launches 5.3.2 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis 5.3.3 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country 5.4 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends 5.5 Mobile Speed Tests 5.5.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests 5.5.2 OpenSignal 5.6 Internet of Things (IoT)
7 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments 7.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure 7.1.1 Palapa Ring Completed 7.1.2 FTTH - 30m premises to go 7.1.3 Submarine Cables
8 Indonesia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape 8.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2020 8.1.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Overview 8.1.2 Indonesia Telecom Towers Background 8.2 Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison 8.3 Indonesia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast 8.3.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Penetration Forecast, 2020-2025 8.3.2 Regulatory Considerations 8.4 Mitratel Profile 8.4.1 Mitratel Towers Key Performance Indicators 8.5 Tower bersama Profile 8.5.1 Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2014 - 2020 8.5.2 Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators 8.6 Protelindo Profile 8.6.1 Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2014 - 2020 8.6.2 Protelindo Key Performance Indicators 8.7 Centratama Menara Profile 8.7.1 Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators 8.8 IBS Towers Profile 8.8.1 IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators 8.9 STP Telecom Profile 8.9.1 STP Towers Key Performance Indicators 8.10 Bali Tower Telecom Profile 8.10.1 Bali Tower Towers Key Performance Indicators 8.11 Digital Colony Telecom Profile 8.12 Tower Density Benchmark 8.13 Telco Infrastructure Comparative
9 Thematics / Opportunities 9.1 Consolidation Opportunities 9.2 Diversification Opportunities 9.3 New Telco Operating Model 9.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples 9.4 5G Developments 9.4.1 5G Overview 9.4.2 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range 9.4.3 5G OpenRAN 9.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G
