By Swati Bhat
MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points on Friday, the fourth straight increase, as policymakers extended their battle to tame stubbornly high inflation and analysts said further tightening is on the cards.
The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising of three members from the RBI and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate to 5.90% with five out of the six voting in favour of the hike.
The RBI has now raised rates by a total 190 basis points since its first unscheduled mid-meeting hike in May but inflation continues to remain stubbornly high - a phenomenon that is affecting much of the global economy.
Graphics: Another rate hike https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-ECONOMY/RATES/xmvjozrodpr/chart.png
"The inflation trajectory remains clouded with uncertainties arising from continuing geopolitical tensions and nervous global financial market sentiments," Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his address accompanying the MPC's decision.
"In this backdrop, MPC was of the view that persistence of high inflation, necessitates further calibrated withdrawal of monetary accommodation to restrain broadening of price pressures, anchor inflation expectations and contain the second round effects," he said.
The MPC also was of the view the current policy rate, adjusted for inflation, was still below 2019 levels.
Most economists expect further tightening, and several predicted the terminal rate at 6.5%, suggesting another 60 bps of rate hikes.
That is well above this month's median Reuters poll forecast at 6.00% in each quarter through end-2023.
"The market was positioned for peak policy rate near 6%, today's 50 bps hike will raise expectations that the peak policy rate is higher than earlier believed. We see peak policy rate at 6.5% now," said Prithviraj Srinivas, chief economist at Axis Capital.
FED ANGST
The U.S. Federal Reserve's relentless and aggressive rate hikes over recent months to curb inflation have battered the rupee, and most other emerging and developed market currencies.
"Clearly, the fast-evolving world order and consistent repricing of Fed's out-sized hikes are strong-arming the emerging markets," said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.
Policymakers around the world are grappling with a sweeping shift away from their respective currencies and into the safe-haven dollar, raising worries of capital outflows and further damage to their economies.