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While trade-war concerns are gripping global markets, India’s fear gauge has so far failed to indicate panic.
The India NSE Volatility Index is down for the ninth day out of 10, even as the Cboe Volatility Index in the US surged as much as 4.7 points on Monday. The gap between the two is now the widest since mid-December.
India’s volatility gauge has been falling with the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index, as investors have shunned protection on hopes the selloff will ease. While Monday’s VIX surge in the US has widened its gap versus swings measures across the world, Indian shares are seen as relatively shielded due to the large domestic market that tends to dictate their moves. The nation has also been working on ways to lower some import tariffs to evade US President Donald Trump’s threatened reciprocal levies.
“The India VIX has broadly remained steady, reflecting India’s relatively lower vulnerability to massive trade disruptions,” said Shubhada Rao, founder of Mumbai-based QuantEco Research. “India is better placed in this highly disrupted global economy as India has a balanced approach with all its trade partners.”
Indian equities have decoupled from global peers, with the Nifty 50 slumping since September on disappointing corporate earnings and economic growth. While the MSCI All-Country World Index and S&P 500 Index were at record highs just two weeks ago, the Indian benchmark was heading for a fifth consecutive month of declines, its longest streak since 1996.
“The Indian and US markets have been disconnected for some time now,” said Gautam Shah, founder of Goldilocks Premium Research. “The divergence in the volatility behavior proves that point further.”
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