Incyte Corporation INCY is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 10, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $1.15 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $1.58 per share.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
In the past year, shares of Incyte have rallied 27.1% against the industry’s decline of 9.9%.
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Let’s see how things might have shaped up prior to the announcement.
Factors Likely to Influence INCY’s Q4 Results
Incyte primarily derives product revenues from the sales of its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in the United States and other marketed drugs.
Its momentum is likely to have continued on the back of Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, in all approved indications (polycythemia vera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GvHD]).
However, competition from other approved drugs might have restricted sales growth potential to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi's fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $745 million.
Incyte also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis NVS for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets.
While Incyte markets Jakafi in the United States, Novartis markets the same drug as Jakavi outside the United States. INCY is expected to have received higher royalties from NVS in the to-be-reported quarter on higher Jakavi sales.
Novartis reported strong performance of Jakavi in the fourth quarter, with sales of the drug witnessing a 13% increase on a constant currency basis. Hence, royalties from the same are likely to have been higher.
Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib), which is approved for treating adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. NVS has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta.
Sales of Opzelura boosted Incyte’s top line in the last reported quarter. Growth in Opzelura sales is likely to have been driven by factors like increasing patient demand, refills and expansion in payer coverage (in both the indications of atopic dermatitis and vitiligo) during the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Opzelura’s fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $148 million.
While Jakafi’s sales and royalties are the key catalysts for INCY’s revenue growth, sales of other drugs like Minjuvi, Pemazyre, Iclusig and Olumiant’s royalties from Eli Lilly are also likely to have contributed to Incyte’s top line.
In February 2024, INCY entered into an asset purchase agreement with MorphoSys AG. This gave Incyte exclusive global rights to tafasitamab, a humanized Fc-modified CD19-targeting immunotherapy marketed in the United States (as Monjuvi) and outside the country (as Minjuvi).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Iclusig, Minjuvi and Pemazyre’s fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $29.69 million, $33.75 million and $22.54 million, respectively.
Incremental sales from Zynyz, too, are expected to have boosted Incyte’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
At the recently held J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, management highlighted that 2025 will be a transformational year for INCY with some potential launches.
Incyte and partner Syndax Pharmaceuticals obtained FDA approval for axatilimab-csfr, an anti-CSF-1R antibody, for the treatment of GVHD after the failure of at least two prior lines of systemic therapy in adult and pediatric patients weighing at least 40 kg. The candidate was approved under the brand name Niktimvo. The drug is Incyte’s second approved treatment for chronic GVHD (third-line) and will be launched soon. Investors will be keen to get an update on the launch activities for Niktimvo during the earnings announcement.
Higher research and development expenses, as well as increased selling and general and administrative costs, are likely to have escalated operating expenses in the fourth quarter.
Earnings Surprise History
Incyte has a disappointing history of earnings surprises. The company missed on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average negative surprise of 94.37%. In the last reported quarter, INCY posted a negative earnings surprise of 4.46%.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for INCY this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Incyte’s Earnings ESP is -18.53% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $1.29 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.58. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: INCY has a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MIRM has an Earnings ESP of +16.08% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
Shares of MIRM have surged 85% in the past year. MIRM beat on earnings in one of the trailing four quarters while missing the same in the remaining three occasions, delivering an average negative surprise of 26.03%.
Exelixis, Inc. EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +5.90% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Shares of EXEL have gained 53.7% in the past year. Earnings of Exelixis beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, delivering an average surprise of 26.52%.
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